Comments on: New graph: Median Second Life user concurrency http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/ Tateru Nino writes about virtual worlds, second life, statistics, culture, law, gaming, and eclectic oddities Thu, 09 Feb 2012 13:56:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ener Haxhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-2/#comment-28129 Ener Hax Wed, 01 Sep 2010 02:17:32 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-28129 wow, derr on me, i did not see the comments, the last graph since 2006 is excellent! thank you wow, derr on me, i did not see the comments, the last graph since 2006 is excellent! thank you

]]> By: Ener Haxhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-28126 Ener Hax Wed, 01 Sep 2010 02:15:48 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-28126 yes, i would like to see longer trending time =) i love your graphs and admire your ability to compile them thank you for doing this ;) yes, i would like to see longer trending time =) i love your graphs and admire your ability to compile them

thank you for doing this ;)

]]> By: Naconhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3212 Nacon Thu, 10 Sep 2009 05:19:31 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3212 Correct. It does not mean it's a positive thing for SL because only asset and fee that does not change are estates and uploads. While people pay for their fee on time, which converted to that equal value for every US dollar. Linden Lab can not provide unlimited dollar resource for every L$ volume there is. 6,213,401,795 L$ total in volume today. When most L$ volume which have not been paid or exchanged had its value raised as further rate goes down. So Linden Lab have to hold accountable for every L$ value to stay legal. Adding more L$ when people pay up to Linden Lab with a buying rate. Having more people throw their money in does not cause that rate to change. Not paying on time causes L$ in demand, order to pay off estates/lands.... are causing the rate to change. However, there are people trying exchange marketing by buying lows and selling highs. Linden Lab need to prevent those kind of abuse to protect their meaning of accountable asset. Otherwise it'll become another Ponzi schemes. I'm not going to bother pointing out what causing people unable to pay off their estate/land on time, because I can't be any more clear about "that" issue when most people and linden lab no longer care to believe any of it. Not going to be my problem anymore. It's best to let people investigate themselves to face a good cold-hard reality. ...but don't act surprised once you do. Please, just don't. I think it's time that I bury my avatar in its digital grave in SL. Correct. It does not mean it’s a positive thing for SL because only asset and fee that does not change are estates and uploads. While people pay for their fee on time, which converted to that equal value for every US dollar. Linden Lab can not provide unlimited dollar resource for every L$ volume there is. 6,213,401,795 L$ total in volume today. When most L$ volume which have not been paid or exchanged had its value raised as further rate goes down. So Linden Lab have to hold accountable for every L$ value to stay legal. Adding more L$ when people pay up to Linden Lab with a buying rate. Having more people throw their money in does not cause that rate to change. Not paying on time causes L$ in demand, order to pay off estates/lands…. are causing the rate to change. However, there are people trying exchange marketing by buying lows and selling highs. Linden Lab need to prevent those kind of abuse to protect their meaning of accountable asset. Otherwise it’ll become another Ponzi schemes.

I’m not going to bother pointing out what causing people unable to pay off their estate/land on time, because I can’t be any more clear about “that” issue when most people and linden lab no longer care to believe any of it. Not going to be my problem anymore. It’s best to let people investigate themselves to face a good cold-hard reality. …but don’t act surprised once you do. Please, just don’t.

I think it’s time that I bury my avatar in its digital grave in SL.

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3149 Tateru Nino Mon, 07 Sep 2009 03:34:57 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3149 Actually, I've got no data that I'd consider a significant economic measurement. Nothing I could point to and say this shows that the economy is larger/smaller/stronger/weaker. Well, except maybe exchange rate. @Nacon? Lower values for the L$ exchange rate are better than higher ones. As demand for L$ increases, the number goes down. 260:1 means the Linden Dollar is stronger than 265:1. The lower that number gets, the more people are paying (and therefore demonstrably willing to pay) for Linden Dollars. Actually, I’ve got no data that I’d consider a significant economic measurement. Nothing I could point to and say this shows that the economy is larger/smaller/stronger/weaker. Well, except maybe exchange rate.

@Nacon? Lower values for the L$ exchange rate are better than higher ones. As demand for L$ increases, the number goes down. 260:1 means the Linden Dollar is stronger than 265:1. The lower that number gets, the more people are paying (and therefore demonstrably willing to pay) for Linden Dollars.

]]> By: TigroSpottystripes Katsuhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3142 TigroSpottystripes Katsu Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:08:30 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3142 how about two new graphics comparing this year to last year, one for concurrency and one for whatever would be the most significant measurement of the economy. The graphs would be somthing like the difference between the values for that day and the day 365 days before. Perhaps also a third graph for new accounts as well. how about two new graphics comparing this year to last year, one for concurrency and one for whatever would be the most significant measurement of the economy. The graphs would be somthing like the difference between the values for that day and the day 365 days before.

Perhaps also a third graph for new accounts as well.

]]> By: Naconhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3141 Nacon Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:57:23 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3141 You won't be hearing anything about it other than giving you non-related data that's showing positive growth. Second Life had met its peak of growth, deem it as the mark of its imminent Second Death. I know not everyone want to hear "end of the world is coming" craziness. I don't like it myself but I won't ever deny it. I knew this is coming because I noticed last year season was fairly poor than a year before that season, and repeat that step to find pattern of annal growth chart. However, the worst news is, it's getting worst faster than on a month I predicted. I expected that peak to be met on November 20th - 30th. So that data tells me it's getting worst on a curve scale. Another fun fact about L$ currency, every L$ has a USD value. Exchange at LindeX had dropped from average selling L$perUSD at 265 down to 260 this year. It may not seem like much but using total L$ volume, Linden Lab lost more than 220,000$ USD alone this year. Right now, rate for 259's quantity are still larger than 260 stock pile. As I recall last May of 2009, 260's stock quantity was at average 40 millions. Today it's at 200K volume. Volume quantity are shifting down to lower rate as possible. If Linden Lab are smart enough... Today is a good day to lock the exchange rate to avoid bigger sink hole. Sad time for SL, but you gotta love shortsighted Lindens. :/ You won’t be hearing anything about it other than giving you non-related data that’s showing positive growth.

Second Life had met its peak of growth, deem it as the mark of its imminent Second Death. I know not everyone want to hear “end of the world is coming” craziness. I don’t like it myself but I won’t ever deny it.

I knew this is coming because I noticed last year season was fairly poor than a year before that season, and repeat that step to find pattern of annal growth chart. However, the worst news is, it’s getting worst faster than on a month I predicted. I expected that peak to be met on November 20th – 30th. So that data tells me it’s getting worst on a curve scale.

Another fun fact about L$ currency, every L$ has a USD value. Exchange at LindeX had dropped from average selling L$perUSD at 265 down to 260 this year. It may not seem like much but using total L$ volume, Linden Lab lost more than 220,000$ USD alone this year. Right now, rate for 259′s quantity are still larger than 260 stock pile. As I recall last May of 2009, 260′s stock quantity was at average 40 millions. Today it’s at 200K volume. Volume quantity are shifting down to lower rate as possible. If Linden Lab are smart enough… Today is a good day to lock the exchange rate to avoid bigger sink hole.

Sad time for SL, but you gotta love shortsighted Lindens. :/

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3030 Tateru Nino Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:47:01 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3030 That depends. There's usually a small decline in Summer, but this looks nothing like that. A lot depends on the actual cause. I've contacted Linden Lab about the figures earlier in the week, and hope to hear more soon. That depends. There’s usually a small decline in Summer, but this looks nothing like that. A lot depends on the actual cause. I’ve contacted Linden Lab about the figures earlier in the week, and hope to hear more soon.

]]> By: TigroSpottystripes Katsuhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-3029 TigroSpottystripes Katsu Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:42:27 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-3029 any predictions about when the line will start to go up again? any predictions about when the line will start to go up again?

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2965 Tateru Nino Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:28:34 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2965 Ah, I didn't recall they were quite so close together. Thanks for pointing that out. Ah, I didn’t recall they were quite so close together. Thanks for pointing that out.

]]> By: Opensource Obscurehttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2964 Opensource Obscure Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:05:11 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2964 Tateru, why "right near the end"? Linden Lab <a href="https://blogs.secondlife.com/community/land/blog/2009/03/26/much-ado-about-bots" rel="nofollow">announced</a> on their blog that they were going to go after Bots a couple of weeks after March, 15. I'd say that the first bots managers stopped using them in March. I guess both reasons play a role in the concurrency drop: - non-bots accounts that were mostly used in what now are Adult zones, don't log in anymore because they didn't (yet) verify themselves - bots concurrency is lower because of the Bots policy Tateru, why “right near the end”? Linden Lab announced on their blog that they were going to go after Bots a couple of weeks after March, 15. I’d say that the first bots managers stopped using them in March.

I guess both reasons play a role in the concurrency drop:
- non-bots accounts that were mostly used in what now are Adult zones, don’t log in anymore because they didn’t (yet) verify themselves
- bots concurrency is lower because of the Bots policy

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2963 Tateru Nino Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:24:30 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2963 It's got to be mixed in there somewhere, probably right near the end. The actual drop starts well before that, however. It’s got to be mixed in there somewhere, probably right near the end. The actual drop starts well before that, however.

]]> By: Ran Garrigushttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2962 Ran Garrigus Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:04:33 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2962 Is there any noticeable effect from the still-rather-theoretical bot ban? Is there any noticeable effect from the still-rather-theoretical bot ban?

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2958 Tateru Nino Tue, 01 Sep 2009 06:04:21 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2958 I've investigated the point where median concurrency peaks on the graphs. It takes place on 15 March, at the height of the in-world protests about Linden Lab's 12 March announcement about Adult Content. From that point on, median user concurrency (daily and weekly) begins to taper off significantly in the following weeks. I’ve investigated the point where median concurrency peaks on the graphs. It takes place on 15 March, at the height of the in-world protests about Linden Lab’s 12 March announcement about Adult Content. From that point on, median user concurrency (daily and weekly) begins to taper off significantly in the following weeks.

]]> By: Pavig Lokhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2957 Pavig Lok Tue, 01 Sep 2009 06:03:40 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2957 That looks like a watershed curve to me. What prompted that reversal at the top I wonder.Can you smooth out enough noise to get an actual date for the peak here? That looks like a watershed curve to me. What prompted that reversal at the top I wonder.Can you smooth out enough noise to get an actual date for the peak here?

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2956 Tateru Nino Tue, 01 Sep 2009 05:44:41 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2956 Okay, after a little more processing, I've got a chart of weekly median user-concurrency for Second Life, from May 2006. It looks like this: <img src="http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_week-0-400.png" alt="Second Life weekly user concurrency. May 2006 to present day." /> Okay, after a little more processing, I’ve got a chart of weekly median user-concurrency for Second Life, from May 2006. It looks like this:
Second Life weekly user concurrency. May 2006 to present day.

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2955 Tateru Nino Tue, 01 Sep 2009 04:41:49 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2955 I note on the stats page that it's daily concurrency median. Packing extra text into the graphic is a bit tricky :) Here's some variations in range: Six months: <img src="http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-182-400.png" alt="Daily medians over six months" /> http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-182-400.png Two years: <img src="http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-730-400.png" alt="Daily medians over two years" /> http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-730-400.png All time (that is, from April 2006, the earliest I have data): <img src="http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-0-400.png" alt="Daily medians for as far back as I have data" /> http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-0-400.png I note on the stats page that it’s daily concurrency median. Packing extra text into the graphic is a bit tricky :)

Here’s some variations in range:

Six months:
Daily medians over six months
http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-182-400.png

Two years:
Daily medians over two years
http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-730-400.png

All time (that is, from April 2006, the earliest I have data):
Daily medians for as far back as I have data
http://taterunino.net/statcharts/median_conc_by_day-0-400.png

]]> By: Nightbird Glineuxhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2953 Nightbird Glineux Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:58:37 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2953 I take my previous comment back. Can you do something to indicate what the vertical graph lines mean? I'm left to guess those represent weeks? If so, what part of the week? Saturdays? Sundays? Mondays? Wednesdays? I take my previous comment back.

Can you do something to indicate what the vertical graph lines mean?

I’m left to guess those represent weeks? If so, what part of the week? Saturdays? Sundays? Mondays? Wednesdays?

]]> By: Nightbird Glineuxhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2952 Nightbird Glineux Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:48:44 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2952 Is it possible to have a connect-the-dots weighted average? It would be easier on my old eyes, at least. Is it possible to have a connect-the-dots weighted average? It would be easier on my old eyes, at least.

]]> By: TigroSpottystripes Katsuhttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2942 TigroSpottystripes Katsu Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:02:25 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2942 Hm, ok, I still think a graph showing the difference (or perhaps ratio, I'm not sure which would be better) between the concurrency in one point and the previous point would be interesting. Btw, would it be possible to have an applet, or perhaps a server side script, to allow people to adjust range and scale on the graphs to zoom and pan as they see fit? Hm, ok, I still think a graph showing the difference (or perhaps ratio, I’m not sure which would be better) between the concurrency in one point and the previous point would be interesting.

Btw, would it be possible to have an applet, or perhaps a server side script, to allow people to adjust range and scale on the graphs to zoom and pan as they see fit?

]]> By: Tateru Ninohttp://dwellonit.taterunino.net/2009/08/30/new-graph-median-second-life-user-concurrency/comment-page-1/#comment-2941 Tateru Nino Mon, 31 Aug 2009 18:26:16 +0000 http://dwellonit.taterunino.net/?p=1609#comment-2941 The resolution is one day. One data-point = one day. 356 points, 365 days. A two year or a lifetime graph shouldn't be an issue to produce. The resolution is one day. One data-point = one day. 356 points, 365 days. A two year or a lifetime graph shouldn’t be an issue to produce.

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